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        With the everyday increasing value of energy power transmission lines have to be more optimized in order to achieve the best possible performance. Weather attributes such as temperature and wind have considerable affect on power lines and are important aspects for the operational optimization of power grids. Presently, complex Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models provide forecasts of various weather attributes. The figure below is a sample map of the NWP forecast for the wind speed and direction. However, these models don’t provide any accuracy or uncertainty measure for their predictions which are needed for decisions made by power grid managers. (image source: http://www.tesc.edu)

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       In this project we use a hindcast data set to analyze the accuracy of one of the modern NWP models. We will use different multivariate statistical techniques to find out where the model’s uncertainty roots from. We expect to be able to associate the accuracy of the predictions with the predicted weather situation such as wind, pressure, humidity or other parameters like time, location and elevation.



Student: Ashkan Zarnani
Course: RenR 690
Instructor: Professor Andreas Hamann

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